College Basketball Reference

By Adam Kiefaber

For some reason every sport uses the word, “bubble” to describe being on the brink of the acceptance.

In college basketball, teams are placed on “bubble watch” in February for the NCAA Tournament.

Football players are placed on the “bubble” when they might not make a roster in August.

Let’s take a look at the top “bubble” teams for the NCAA Tournament.

ACC

Maryland (17-9, 7-4 in ACC, No. 50 RPI) - Currently, The Terps are in great position and just need to win three of their next five games to be a lock.

Wake Forest (16-8, 6-5 in ACC, No. 59 RPI) - Upsetting Duke really helps Wake’s chances, but the next two games will not be easy (UNC and Maryland). Wake Forest still has a lot of work to do.

Miami (Fla.) (17-7, 4-6 in ACC, No. 39 RPI) - The Hurricanes have six games left and need to finish strong. The team’s best wins are against VCU, Providence and Clemson.

Locks: Duke, UNC
Who should be in: Clemson
A lot of work to do: VTECH, GTECH, N.C. State, Boston College, FSU
Eliminated: Virginia

A-10

Saint Joseph’s (16-8, 7-4 in A-10, No. 53 RPI) - The Hawks started A-10 play on fire and have recently began to struggle, losing three of their last four. St. Joes needs to finish strong and play well in the A-10 Tournament.

Rhode Island (20-6, 6-5 in A-10, No. 31 RPI) - The Rams will be tricky out in the NCAA tournament, if they ever get there. Like every team besides Xavier, Rhode Island needs to finish strong.

Massachusetts (16-9, 5-6 in A-10, No. 40 RPI) - The Minuteman have a losing record in the A-10, but have a good RPI ranking. Since the A-10 will only receive between three or four seeds, it will be a tight race for everyone.

Dayton (17-7, 5-6 in A-10, No. 24 RPI) - The Flyers have been killed by injuries, however the team has a top 25 RPI rating. Despite the rating, Dayton needs to finish above or at .500 in the conference and win at least a game or two in the conference tournament.

Lock: Xavier
A little of work to do to be on bubble: Duquesne, Temple, Charlotte
A lot of work to do: Richmond, St. Louis
Eliminated: La Salle, Fordham, G. Washington, St. Bonaventure

BIG EAST

Syracuse (17-10, 7-7 in BIG EAST, No. 46 RPI) - It looks like the BIG EAST could get eight seeds, right now if the tournament was today there would be at least seven ahead of the Orangeman.

Villanova (15-9, 5-7 in BIG EAST, No. 61 RPI) - Nova has been a disappointment this season, but still has a shot at that last spot.

Locks: GTOWN, Louisville, UCONN, Notre Dame
Teams that should be in, but could be on bubble soon: West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Marquette
A little work to do to be on bubble: Cincinnati, Seton Hall
Eliminated: DePaul, St. John’s, Providence, South Florida, Rutgers

BIG TEN

Ohio State (17-9, 8-5 in BIG TEN, No. 45 RPI) - OSU appeared to be in, but the loss to Michigan this weekend hurts. If the BIG TEN receives five bids, OSU should get the nod.

Locks: Purdue, Indiana, Wisconsin, Michigan St.
A little work to do to be on bubble: Minnesota
Eliminated: Iowa, Penn St., Michigan, Illinois, Northwestern

BIG 12

Oklahoma (18-8, 6-5 in BIG 12, No. 29) - The Sooners have won three in a row after losing four in a row - so that is a big turnaround that any team can do to screw up my “bubble watch.”

Baylor (17-8, 5-6 in BIG 12, No. 41) - Baylor started the year strong and have struggled of late. The Bears would be a tough out in the tournament, if they can get in.

Locks: Kansas, Texas, Kansas St.
Teams that should be in, but could be on bubble soon: Texas A&M
A lot work to do to be on bubble: Texas Tech, Iowa St., Missouri, Oklahoma St., Nebraska
Eliminated: Colorado

PAC-10

Almost every team is on the bubble in the nation’s toughest conference.

Locks: UCLA, Stanford, Washington State
Bubble: Arizona St., Arizona, USC, California, Oregon, Washington
Eliminated: Oregon St.

SEC

Again almost every team is on the bubble in the SEC - some have more work to do than others.

Lock: Tennessee
Almost a lock: Vanderbilt
Looking good on the bubble: Mississippi St., Arkansas, Kentucky, Florida
Need work, but on bubble: Mississippi
Need work to be on bubble: South Carolina, Georgia, Auburn, Alabama
Eliminated: LSU

Other contenders:

Locks: Memphis, Butler, Drake

Should be in if they don’t win conference tournament: VCU, Kent St., BYU, UNLV, Davidson, Western Ky., St. Mary’s, Gonzaga

On Bubble: Houston, UAB, Illinois St., San Diego St., New Mexico, South Alabama, Boise St., Nevada

Close to being on bubble: Wright State, George Mason, Akron, Ohio, Southern Ill., Creighton, Utah, New Mexico St.

There are two ways most bubbles burst - 1) a team doesn’t finish strong - 2) An upset occurs in a conference tournament championship game.

This should be an interesting Selection Sunday on March 16. Be on the lookout for my latest version of “Filling Out the Bracket” early next week. Also, watch for the latest CBR Top 25 later this week.

RPI rankings were taken from kenpom.com

This entry was posted Wednesday, February 20th, 2008 at 1:43 pm and is filed under NCAA Tournament. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.